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2018 Vol.38, Issue 5 Preview Page

Research Article

An Application of the Probability Plotting Positions for the Ln­least Method for Estimating the Parameters of Weibull Wind Speed Distribution

와이블 풍속 분포 파라미터 추정을 위한 Ln­least 방법의 확률도시위치 적용

Dong-Bum Kang1
,
Kyung-Nam Ko2*
강 동범1
,
고 경남2*
1Multidisciplinary Graduate School Program for Wind Energy, Graduate School, Jeju National University, Ph.D Student
2Faculty of Wind Energy Engineering, Graduate School, Jeju National University, Associate Professor
1제주대학교 대학원 풍력특성화협동과정, 박사과정
2제주대학교 대학원 풍력공학부, 부교수
*Corresponding Author 
30 October 2018. pp. 11-25
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Abstract

The Ln-least method is commonly used to estimate the Weibull parameters from the observed wind speed data. In previous studies, the bin method has been used to calculate the cumulative frequency distribution for the Ln-least method. The purpose of this study is to obtain better performance in the Ln-least method by applying probability plotting position(PPP) instead of the bin method. Two types of the wind speed data were used for the analysis. One was the observed wind speed data taken from three sites with different topographical conditions. The other was the virtual wind speed data which were statistically generated by a random variable with known Weibull parameters. Also, ten types of PPP formulas were applied which were Hazen, California, Weibull, Blom, Gringorten, Chegodayev, Cunnane, Tukey, Beard and Median. In addition, in order to suggest the most suitable PPP formula for estimating Weibull parameters, two accuracy tests, the root mean square error(RMSE) and R2 tests, were performed. As a result, all of PPPs showed better performances than the bin method and the best PPP was the Hazen formula. In the RMSE test, compared with the bin method, the Hazen formula increased estimation performance by 38.2% for the observed wind speed data and by 37.0% for the virtual wind speed data. For the R2 test, the Hazen formula improved the performance by 1.2% and 2.7%, respectively. In addition, the performance of the PPP depended on the frequency of low wind speeds and wind speed variability.

Keywords
Wind energy
Wind data
Weibull distribution
Ln­least method
Probability plotting position

키워드
풍력에너지
바람 데이터
와이블 분포
Ln­least 방법
확률도시위치
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Solar Energy Society
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국태양에너지학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국태양에너지학회 논문집
  • Volume : 38
  • No :5
  • Pages :11-25
  • Received Date : 2018-05-30
  • Revised Date : 2018-09-03
  • Accepted Date : 2018-10-30
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7836/kses.2018.38.5.011
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