Non-linear Regression Model Between Solar Irradiation and PV Power Generation by Using Gompertz Curve

Boyoung Kim; Cortezon Alba Vilanova; Chang Ki Kim; Yong-Heack Kang; Chang-Yeol Yun; Hyung-Goo Kim

doi:10.7836/kses.2019.39.6.113

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2019 Vol.39, Issue 6 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Non-linear Regression Model Between Solar Irradiation and PV Power Generation by Using Gompertz Curve Gompertz 곡선을 이용한 비선형 일사량-태양광 발전량 회귀 모델

31 December 2019. pp. 113-125

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Abstract

With the opening of the small power brokerage business market in December 2018, the small power trading market has started in Korea. Operators must submit the day-ahead estimates of power output and receive incentives based on its accuracy. Therefore, the accuracy of power generation forecasts is directly affects profits of the operators. The forecasting process for power generation can be divided into two procedure. The first is to forecast solar irradiation and the second is to transform forecasted solar irradiation into power generation. There are two methods for transformation. One is to simulate with physical model, and another is to use regression model. In this study, we found the best-fit regression model by analyzing hourly data of PV output and solar irradiation data during three years for 242 PV plants in Korea. The best model was not a linear model, but a sigmoidal model and specifically a Gompertz model. The combined linear regression and Gompertz curve was proposed because a the curve has non-zero y-intercept. As the result, R² and RMSE between observed data and the curve was significantly reduced.

Keywords

위성영상

일사량

발전량

회귀 모델

Gompertz 곡선

키워드

Satellite imagery

Solar irradiation

Power generation

Regression model

References

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Information

Publisher :Korean Solar Energy Society
Publisher(Ko) :한국태양에너지학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
Journal Title(Ko) :한국태양에너지학회 논문집
Volume : 39
No :6
Pages :113-125
Received Date : 2019-10-03
Revised Date : 2019-12-24
Accepted Date : 2019-12-26
DOI :https://doi.org/10.7836/kses.2019.39.6.113

Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society ISSN:1598-6411(Print) 2508-3562(Online) 한국태양에너지학회 논문집

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