An Inference Method of Influence Parameters for a Physical Calculation Model of Photovoltaic Power Generation

Jiyoon Ku; Myeongchan Oh; Hyun-Goo Kim; Yong-Heack Kang; Hyeong-Dong Park

doi:10.7836/kses.2022.42.6.075

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2022 Vol.42, Issue 6 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

An Inference Method of Influence Parameters for a Physical Calculation Model of Photovoltaic Power Generation 태양광 발전량의 물리적 계산 모델에 대한 영향 인자 추론 방법

30 December 2022. pp. 75-91

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Abstract

To cope with the fluctuating and irregular production of solar electricity, a renewable energy generation prediction system, which gives incentives when the forecast error is low, was implemented in Korea in October 2021. Most previous studies have focused on predicting solar irradiance, rather than power output. Physical models are used when the research range is broad, but the accuracy of these models is dependent on the extent of known design parameters. Thus, the purpose of this study was to infer unknown parameters and to examine the effect of applying inferred values on physical model performance. According to sensitivity analysis, azimuth, loss factor, tilt, and albedo had high contributions to the photovoltaic power output, in that order, and together, these parameters accounted for 97% of the output variability. The best prediction accuracy was achieved when azimuth and tilt, which have a high level of interaction, were inferred simultaneously, and an inferred loss factor was also used. As a result, the mean absolute error was 0.079 MWh. The findings of this study may be applied to inferring installation information for solar systems located in abandoned mines and idle sites.

Keywords

Photovoltaic

Solar Power Prediction

Photovoltaic Physical Model

Design Parameters

키워드

태양광

태양광 발전량 예측

태양광 물리 모델

설계 변수

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Information

Publisher :Korean Solar Energy Society
Publisher(Ko) :한국태양에너지학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
Journal Title(Ko) :한국태양에너지학회 논문집
Volume : 42
No :6
Pages :75-91
Received Date : 2022-09-19
Revised Date : 2022-11-05
Accepted Date : 2022-11-07
DOI :https://doi.org/10.7836/kses.2022.42.6.075

Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society ISSN:1598-6411(Print) 2508-3562(Online) 한국태양에너지학회 논문집

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